Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

AJ Barner

SEA

TE24 · overall #167 · tier 6 · age 24

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Projected points

95

6.3/gm

Value over replacement

-10

repl 111

Range

66–124

sd 29

Week

6.2

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.0
Carries / game
0.3
Receptions / game
3.0
Rec yards / game
28
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.31
Total TD / game
0.33
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.5
Games of history
32
Age multiplier
1.060
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.9
Projected plays / game
61.2
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.11
OL pass protection
+0.37
OL continuity
100%
2TE rate
34%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
50%
Run friendly
+0.17
Scheme creativity
-0.21
Play action / motion
23% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
16
Effective contributors
1.94
Top player's share
67%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.32

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NE,ARI,WAS
Window matchup
+1.43
Opponents after
LAC,SF,DEN
After matchup
-0.19
Flip edge
+1.63
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.54

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

121.3

Per game

7.14

17-gm pace

121

Best / worst

20.8 / 0.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.72100
29.832261
32.811230
410.733321
520.877532
68.633710
71.43170
910.043240
100.30000
1112.11110700
122.842180
135.754350
144.243270
154.263270
1613.064491
1711.833431
182.432140