Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Isaiah Likely

NYG

TE28 · overall #188 · tier 7 · age 26

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Projected points

82

5.7/gm

Value over replacement

-19

repl 111

Range

34–130

sd 48

Week

5.3

vs DAL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.7
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
2.6
Rec yards / game
28
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.27
Total TD / game
0.27
Games projected
14.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.7
Games of history
55
Age multiplier
1.030
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.8
Projected plays / game
62.5
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+0.42
OL pass protection
-0.21
OL continuity
75%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
68%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
-0.80
Scheme creativity
+0.10
Play action / motion
22% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score
58
Effective contributors
1.69
Top player's share
73%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.70

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DAL,LA,TEN
Window matchup
-0.02
Opponents after
ARI,WAS,NO
After matchup
+1.26
Flip edge
-1.28
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.04

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

12

Points

48.2

Per game

4.02

17-gm pace

68

Best / worst

10.5 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
51.711120
61.62260
81.82280
97.543600
102.742170
112.532150
121.531100
1310.065950
1410.564251
160.00000
174.233270
184.222320