Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Brock Bowers

LV

TE2 · overall #34 · tier 1 · age 23

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Projected points

173

12.4/gm

Value over replacement

76

repl 111

Range

108–238

sd 65

Week

11.3

vs MIA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
9.1
Carries / game
0.2
Receptions / game
6.6
Rec yards / game
66
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.42
Total TD / game
0.42
Games projected
13.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
15.1
Games of history
29
Age multiplier
1.060
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
61.0
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.09
OL pass protection
-0.23
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
42%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
+0.57
Scheme creativity
-0.06
Play action / motion
22% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
92
Effective contributors
2.41
Top player's share
55%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.04

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
MIA,LAC,NO
Window matchup
-0.39
Opponents after
KC,NE,BUF
After matchup
-0.71
Flip edge
+0.32
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.57

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

12

Points

144.2

Per game

12.02

17-gm pace

204

Best / worst

37.3 / 3.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
112.8851030
26.385380
37.854380
47.165460
937.313121273
103.231310
1110.7127720
128.596550
1320.344632
1412.654461
155.886280
1611.855331