T.J. Hockenson

MIN

TE21 · overall #144 · tier 5 · age 29

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Projected points

6.9/gm

Value over replacement

-1

repl 112

Range

58–131

sd 36

Week

6.7

vs MIA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 5.5
Carries / game: 0.0
Receptions / game: 3.9
Rec yards / game: 39
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.21
Total TD / game: 0.21
Games projected: 13.6
Observed pts/gm (history): 9.7
Games of history: 57
Age multiplier: 0.933
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.1
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: -0.05
OL pass protection: +0.10
OL continuity: 76%
2TE rate: 27%
3WR rate: 63%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: -0.76
Scheme creativity: +0.22
Play action / motion: 26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: clear lead
Ambiguity score: 13
Effective contributors: 1.86
Top player's share: 70%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.29

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: MIA,NO
Window matchup: +0.64
Opponents after: IND,DET,BUF
After matchup: +0.24
Flip edge: +0.40
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 6
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.87

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

87.3

Per game

5.82

17-gm pace

Best / worst

13.4 / 0.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	3.0	TE33	4	3	15	0
2	1.7	TE42	3	1	12	0
3	13.4	TE5	6	5	49	1
4	5.9	TE22	5	4	39	0
5	6.8	TE21	6	6	38	0
7	7.3	TE19	9	6	43	0
8	3.6	TE23	3	2	26	0
9	8.1	TE18	3	2	11	1
10	1.8	TE42	2	2	8	0
11	5.4	TE18	6	3	39	0
12	3.9	TE27	4	4	19	0
13	8.9	TE14	6	6	59	0
14	8.2	TE14	3	2	12	1
15	8.6	TE13	5	4	66	0
16	0.7	TE62	1	1	2	0