Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

T.J. Hockenson

MIN

TE25 · overall #143 · tier 6 · age 29

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Projected points

94

6.9/gm

Value over replacement

-0

repl 111

Range

58–131

sd 36

Week

5.8

vs GB

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.5
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.9
Rec yards / game
39
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.21
Total TD / game
0.21
Games projected
13.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.7
Games of history
57
Age multiplier
0.933
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.1
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.03
OL pass protection
+0.12
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
27%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.77
Scheme creativity
+0.21
Play action / motion
26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
13
Effective contributors
1.86
Top player's share
70%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.29

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
GB,CHI,TB
Window matchup
-0.05
Opponents after
MIA,NO
After matchup
+0.56
Flip edge
-0.61
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.66

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

87.3

Per game

5.82

17-gm pace

99

Best / worst

13.4 / 0.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.043150
21.731120
313.465491
45.954390
56.866380
77.396430
83.632260
98.132111
101.82280
115.463390
123.944190
138.966590
148.232121
158.654660
160.71120