Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Juwan Johnson

NO

TE15 · overall #138 · tier 5 · age 29

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Projected points

105

7.1/gm

Value over replacement

3

repl 111

Range

77–133

sd 28

Week

6.4

@ DET

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.1
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.6
Rec yards / game
38
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.25
Total TD / game
0.25
Games projected
14.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.4
Games of history
61
Age multiplier
0.933
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.6
Projected plays / game
62.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.09
OL pass protection
+0.23
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
47%
Run friendly
-0.26
Scheme creativity
-0.31
Play action / motion
19% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
11
Effective contributors
1.85
Top player's share
72%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.29

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DET,BAL,LV
Window matchup
-0.45
Opponents after
ATL,MIN,NYG
After matchup
-0.16
Flip edge
-0.29
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.82

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

141.4

Per game

8.32

17-gm pace

141

Best / worst

17.2 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
111.6118760
213.495491
38.186510
44.333280
52.742170
60.522150
710.475790
87.885530
910.643311
1017.244921
127.676460
136.495390
145.844380
155.044300
1612.998890
1711.544950
185.653610