Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Evan Engram

DEN

TE26 · overall #153 · tier 6 · age 31

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Projected points

92

6.6/gm

Value over replacement

-5

repl 111

Range

56–127

sd 36

Week

5.1

@ KC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.4
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.9
Rec yards / game
38
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.16
Total TD / game
0.16
Games projected
13.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.1
Games of history
59
Age multiplier
0.888
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.2
Projected plays / game
62.2
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+1.24
OL pass protection
+1.55
OL continuity
98%
2TE rate
23%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.38
Scheme creativity
+0.14
Play action / motion
25% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
32
Effective contributors
2.02
Top player's share
67%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.35

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
KC,JAX,LA
Window matchup
-0.57
Opponents after
SF,LAC,SEA
After matchup
-0.23
Flip edge
-0.34
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.18

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

77.8

Per game

4.86

17-gm pace

83

Best / worst

11.3 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.643210
21.721120
44.974290
511.364331
67.465420
76.785420
85.644360
90.03000
102.252120
115.354330
1310.996790
141.82280
151.731120
164.642360
174.144210
186.043450