Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Chig Okonkwo

WAS

TE20 · overall #163 · tier 6 · age 26

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Projected points

99

6.4/gm

Value over replacement

-8

repl 111

Range

69–128

sd 30

Week

5.7

@ PHI

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.2
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
3.7
Rec yards / game
36
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.16
Total TD / game
0.16
Games projected
15.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.9
Games of history
66
Age multiplier
1.030
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.8
Projected plays / game
60.8
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
-0.49
OL pass protection
-0.83
OL continuity
84%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
67%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.20
Scheme creativity
-0.17
Play action / motion
20% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
15
Effective contributors
1.93
Top player's share
69%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.31

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
PHI,DAL,SEA
Window matchup
-0.46
Opponents after
IND,NYG,SF
After matchup
+0.16
Flip edge
-0.62
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.59

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

96.0

Per game

5.65

17-gm pace

96

Best / worst

13.4 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.443190
25.564350
39.165660
40.93140
56.854480
67.666460
70.02000
87.354530
92.022100
117.133560
125.543400
134.954290
143.022200
155.364330
1613.486441
1713.073551
181.25220