Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

TE

Greg Dulcich

MIA

TE29 · overall #185 · tier 6 · age 26

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Projected points

62

6.1/gm

Value over replacement

-9

repl 112

Range

24–99

sd 37

Week

3.3

@ MIN

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

Cut 22 Aug from the audit's list -- TE19 against ECR TE31, no ADP. THE ONLY ONE OF THE THREE WHERE THE MODEL IS ABOVE THE PLAYER'S OWN RECORD, and by a lot: 7.01/g against a decay-0.65 weighted 4.57, +2.44. His three seasons are 2.00/g on 2 games, 1.33 on 4 and 5.76 on 9 -- he has never played a full season and has never cleared 6 points a game. He is Miami's listed TE1 and the room behind him is empty (1.7, 1.7, 1.2 targets a game), so the depth chart hands him a starter's share on a record that does not support one. TE27, above ECR TE31 because the job is genuinely his, but not priced as a producer he has never been.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.7
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.3
Rec yards / game
35
Rush yards / game
-0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.13
Total TD / game
0.13
Games projected
10.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.3
Games of history
25
Age multiplier
1.030
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.6
Projected plays / game
60.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-1.09
OL pass protection
-0.47
OL continuity
69%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
46%
1st-down pass rate
42%
Run friendly
-0.06
Scheme creativity
+1.42
Play action / motion
26% / 73%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
3.63
Top player's share
33%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
MIN,CIN
Window matchup
-0.65
Opponents after
NYJ,NE,DET
After matchup
+0.20
Flip edge
-0.86
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.73

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

9

Points

49.8

Per game

5.53

17-gm pace

94

Best / worst

13.6 / 2.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
97.4TE2055490
102.7TE3341220
112.8TE3342180
133.4TE3222240
145.6TE1933410
155.6TE2122460
164.1TE2833460
1713.6TE465581
184.6TE2643310