Trade windows
Built for active trading: buy a soft upcoming stretch the market has not priced yet, then flip before the schedule turns. Matchup quality is defense-vs-position specific — a defense can be stout against running backs and porous against receivers, and these numbers keep those separate.
Buy targets
window wks 4-6 · vs recent form
- QBDaniel JonesINDT5+1.58
- QBAnthony RichardsonINDT8+1.58
- QBCaleb WilliamsCHIT1+1.42
- QBJacoby BrissettARIT6+1.28
- QBMichael Penix Jr.ATLT5+0.91
- QBDrake MayeNET2+0.74
- QBBaker MayfieldTBT4+0.69
- QBDeshaun WatsonCLET7+0.67
- QBJayden DanielsWAST3+0.62
- QBMarcus MariotaWAST8+0.62
- QBKyler MurrayMINT4+0.61
- QBCarson WentzMINT8+0.61
Sell high / flip
soft now, hard after — sell into strength
- QBJameis WinstonNYGT7+1.40
- QBJ.J. McCarthyNYGT8+1.40
- QBJosh AllenBUFT1+1.06
- QBC.J. StroudHOUT5+0.88
- QBDaniel JonesINDT5+0.71
- QBAnthony RichardsonINDT8+0.71
- QBJordan LoveGBT5+0.67
- QBJoe BurrowCINT2+0.61
- QBJared GoffDETT4+0.52
- QBTeddy BridgewaterDETT8+0.52
- QBCaleb WilliamsCHIT1+0.40
- QBKyler MurrayMINT4+0.37
- QBCarson WentzMINT8+0.37
Avoid acquiring
hard upcoming stretch
- QBMalik WillisMIAT5-1.31
- QBCam WardTENT6-0.90
- QBJustin HerbertLACT3-0.85
- QBKirk CousinsLVT7-0.48
- QBAidan O'ConnellLVT8-0.48
- QBBo NixDENT2-0.43
QB team schedule windows
matchup score = 65% defense-vs-position + 35% implied game total
| Team | Action | Next 3 | Opponents | After 3 | Then | Edge | Implied | Bye | Playoff wks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.80 | WAS,PIT,TEN | +0.09 | MIN,JAX,DAL | +0.71 | 24.6 | 13 | +0.36 |
| MIN | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.64 | MIA,NO | +0.27 | IND,DET,BUF | +0.37 | 23.3 | 6 | +1.05 |
| NYG | sell high | +0.63 | ARI,WAS,NO | -0.78 | HOU,PHI | +1.40 | 22.8 | 8 | +0.65 |
| CHI | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.61 | NYJ,GB,ATL | +0.22 | NE,SEA,TB | +0.40 | 23.6 | 10 | +0.41 |
| GB | sell high | +0.50 | TB,CHI,DAL | -0.17 | DET,CAR,NE | +0.67 | 21.6 | 11 | -0.15 |
| HOU | sell high | +0.43 | DAL,TEN,JAX | -0.45 | NYG,LAC | +0.88 | 21.5 | 8 | -0.79 |
| DET | sell high | +0.41 | CAR,ARI | -0.11 | GB,MIN,MIA | +0.52 | 24.9 | 6 | -0.28 |
| CIN | sell high | +0.38 | JAX,MIA | -0.23 | BAL,TEN,ATL | +0.61 | 23.0 | 6 | -0.58 |
| BUF | sell high | +0.34 | NE,LA,LV | -0.72 | BAL,MIN | +1.06 | 24.6 | 7 | +0.44 |
| BAL | hold | +0.28 | TEN,ATL,CLE | -0.04 | CIN,BUF,JAX | +0.32 | 23.3 | 13 | -0.08 |
| TB | buy low | +0.27 | GB,DAL,PIT | +0.20 | CAR,ATL,CHI | +0.07 | 21.9 | 10 | +0.41 |
| KC | hold | +0.19 | LV,LAC | +0.05 | SEA,DEN,NYJ | +0.14 | 25.1 | 5 | +0.01 |
| ARI | buy low | +0.19 | NYG,DET,LA | -0.10 | DEN,DAL,SEA | +0.29 | 22.3 | 14 | +0.49 |
| NE | buy low | +0.17 | BUF,LV,NYJ | -0.07 | CHI,MIA,GB | +0.24 | 21.7 | 11 | -0.08 |
| ATL | buy low | +0.13 | NO,BAL,CHI | +0.32 | SF,TB,CIN | -0.19 | 23.4 | 11 | +0.61 |
| DAL | hold | +0.01 | HOU,TB,GB | +0.23 | PHI,ARI,IND | -0.22 | 23.8 | 14 | +0.27 |
| LA | hold | -0.02 | PHI,BUF,ARI | +0.31 | LV,LAC,WAS | -0.33 | 24.2 | 11 | +0.33 |
| NO | hold | -0.03 | ATL,MIN,NYG | +0.08 | PIT,CLE | -0.12 | 24.3 | 8 | +0.57 |
| WAS | buy low | -0.06 | IND,NYG,SF | -0.61 | PHI,LA | +0.56 | 21.4 | 7 | -0.67 |
| PIT | hold | -0.06 | CLE,IND,TB | -0.18 | NO,CLE | +0.12 | 21.5 | 9 | -0.11 |
| SEA | hold | -0.10 | LAC,SF,DEN | +0.22 | KC,CHI,ARI | -0.33 | 23.5 | 11 | -0.50 |
| CAR | hold | -0.12 | DET,PHI | -0.03 | TB,GB,DEN | -0.09 | 22.3 | 5 | -0.26 |
| PHI | hold | -0.17 | LA,JAX,CAR | +1.22 | DAL,WAS,NYG | -1.39 | 23.2 | 10 | -0.28 |
| CLE | buy low | -0.18 | PIT,NYJ,BAL | -0.27 | TEN,PIT,NO | +0.08 | 19.4 | 11 | -0.39 |
| SF | hold | -0.19 | DEN,SEA,WAS | -0.01 | ATL,LV | -0.18 | 22.0 | 8 | -1.02 |
| JAX | hold | -0.27 | CIN,PHI,HOU | -0.20 | IND,BAL | -0.07 | 23.1 | 7 | +0.35 |
| NYJ | hold | -0.28 | CHI,CLE,NE | +0.04 | MIA,LV,KC | -0.32 | 21.0 | 13 | -0.31 |
| DEN | avoid | -0.43 | SF,LAC,SEA | +0.14 | ARI,KC,CAR | -0.56 | 23.8 | 10 | +0.26 |
| LV | avoid | -0.48 | KC,NE,BUF | +0.04 | LA,NYJ,SF | -0.52 | 21.3 | 13 | +0.17 |
| LAC | avoid | -0.85 | SEA,DEN,KC | -0.38 | LA,HOU | -0.47 | 21.1 | 7 | +0.10 |
| TEN | avoid | -0.90 | BAL,HOU,IND | -0.51 | CLE,CIN | -0.39 | 18.1 | 9 | -0.31 |
| MIA | avoid | -1.31 | MIN,CIN | +0.39 | NYJ,NE,DET | -1.69 | 17.2 | 6 | -0.78 |
Defense vs QB
positive = soft matchup · these are position-specific, not overall defense quality
DAL22.2+2.14
NYJ22.1+1.87
WAS18.2+1.45
MIA15.4+1.18
DET18.9+1.12
ARI17.0+0.78
TEN20.1+0.75
CIN18.1+0.72
ATL16.7+0.65
TB20.1+0.60
IND16.9+0.47
NO13.8+0.36
NE13.8+0.27
NYG15.2+0.19
CHI17.5+0.16
LV16.0+0.15
PIT18.7+0.00
DEN14.7-0.17
SF17.1-0.25
JAX13.6-0.32
LA15.4-0.36
GB16.4-0.54
BAL16.2-0.60
CAR12.1-0.68
BUF12.5-0.72
CLE11.6-0.76
LAC12.2-0.85
KC16.3-0.98
HOU13.3-1.01
PHI15.2-1.42
SEA15.3-1.88
MIN8.7-2.32