Trade windows
Built for active trading: buy a soft upcoming stretch the market has not priced yet, then flip before the schedule turns. Matchup quality is defense-vs-position specific — a defense can be stout against running backs and porous against receivers, and these numbers keep those separate.
Buy targets
window wks 4-6 · vs recent form
- TETyler WarrenINDT1+1.56
- TEIsaiah LikelyNYGT5+1.06
- TEChig OkonkwoWAST6+1.03
- TETrey McBrideARIT1+0.93
- TEColston LovelandCHIT1+0.69
- TET.J. HockensonMINT5+0.68
- TEKyle PittsATLT3+0.56
Sell high / flip
soft now, hard after — sell into strength
- TEIsaiah LikelyNYGT5+1.58
- TEDalton KincaidBUFT3+0.96
- TESam LaPortaDETT1+0.87
- TETyler WarrenINDT1+0.66
- TETravis KelceKCT3+0.57
- TET.J. HockensonMINT5+0.40
Avoid acquiring
hard upcoming stretch
- TEOronde Gadsden IILACT3-0.77
- TEGreg DulcichMIAT6-0.65
- TEHarold Fannin Jr.CLET2-0.58
- TEBrock BowersLVT1-0.43
TE team schedule windows
matchup score = 65% defense-vs-position + 35% implied game total
| Team | Action | Next 3 | Opponents | After 3 | Then | Edge | Implied | Bye | Playoff wks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | sell high | +0.95 | CAR,ARI | +0.07 | GB,MIN,MIA | +0.87 | 24.9 | 6 | -0.16 |
| NYG | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.85 | ARI,WAS,NO | -0.73 | HOU,PHI | +1.58 | 22.8 | 8 | +0.26 |
| IND | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.80 | WAS,PIT,TEN | +0.14 | MIN,JAX,DAL | +0.66 | 24.6 | 13 | +0.47 |
| CIN | sell high | +0.74 | JAX,MIA | -0.72 | BAL,TEN,ATL | +1.45 | 23.0 | 6 | -0.62 |
| MIN | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.64 | MIA,NO | +0.24 | IND,DET,BUF | +0.40 | 23.3 | 6 | +0.87 |
| KC | sell high | +0.46 | LV,LAC | -0.10 | SEA,DEN,NYJ | +0.57 | 25.1 | 5 | +0.19 |
| BUF | sell high | +0.28 | NE,LA,LV | -0.68 | BAL,MIN | +0.96 | 24.6 | 7 | +0.48 |
| HOU | hold | +0.19 | DAL,TEN,JAX | -0.26 | NYG,LAC | +0.45 | 21.5 | 8 | -0.87 |
| GB | hold | +0.19 | TB,CHI,DAL | -0.01 | DET,CAR,NE | +0.20 | 21.6 | 11 | +0.05 |
| DAL | hold | +0.18 | HOU,TB,GB | +0.33 | PHI,ARI,IND | -0.14 | 23.8 | 14 | +0.27 |
| CHI | buy low | +0.07 | NYJ,GB,ATL | +0.37 | NE,SEA,TB | -0.30 | 23.6 | 10 | +0.27 |
| SEA | hold | +0.07 | LAC,SF,DEN | +0.41 | KC,CHI,ARI | -0.34 | 23.5 | 11 | -0.66 |
| LA | hold | +0.04 | PHI,BUF,ARI | +0.56 | LV,LAC,WAS | -0.52 | 24.2 | 11 | +0.11 |
| ARI | buy low | +0.00 | NYG,DET,LA | -0.38 | DEN,DAL,SEA | +0.38 | 22.3 | 14 | +0.23 |
| PHI | hold | -0.00 | LA,JAX,CAR | +0.91 | DAL,WAS,NYG | -0.91 | 23.2 | 10 | -0.10 |
| PIT | hold | -0.01 | CLE,IND,TB | -0.34 | NO,CLE | +0.33 | 21.5 | 9 | -0.25 |
| JAX | hold | -0.02 | CIN,PHI,HOU | -0.46 | IND,BAL | +0.45 | 23.1 | 7 | +0.26 |
| NE | hold | -0.05 | BUF,LV,NYJ | -0.15 | CHI,MIA,GB | +0.11 | 21.7 | 11 | -0.25 |
| BAL | hold | -0.06 | TEN,ATL,CLE | +0.33 | CIN,BUF,JAX | -0.39 | 23.3 | 13 | +0.11 |
| SF | hold | -0.06 | DEN,SEA,WAS | -0.33 | ATL,LV | +0.27 | 22.0 | 8 | -0.99 |
| NO | hold | -0.09 | ATL,MIN,NYG | +0.03 | PIT,CLE | -0.12 | 24.3 | 8 | +0.65 |
| WAS | buy low | -0.11 | IND,NYG,SF | -1.03 | PHI,LA | +0.92 | 21.4 | 7 | -0.52 |
| TB | hold | -0.15 | GB,DAL,PIT | +0.03 | CAR,ATL,CHI | -0.18 | 21.9 | 10 | -0.01 |
| ATL | buy low | -0.19 | NO,BAL,CHI | +0.59 | SF,TB,CIN | -0.78 | 23.4 | 11 | +0.69 |
| DEN | hold | -0.26 | SF,LAC,SEA | +0.51 | ARI,KC,CAR | -0.77 | 23.8 | 10 | +0.31 |
| NYJ | hold | -0.33 | CHI,CLE,NE | +0.14 | MIA,LV,KC | -0.47 | 21.0 | 13 | +0.18 |
| CAR | avoid | -0.38 | DET,PHI | -0.01 | TB,GB,DEN | -0.37 | 22.3 | 5 | -0.01 |
| LV | avoid | -0.43 | KC,NE,BUF | -0.33 | LA,NYJ,SF | -0.11 | 21.3 | 13 | +0.37 |
| CLE | avoid | -0.58 | PIT,NYJ,BAL | -0.40 | TEN,PIT,NO | -0.18 | 19.4 | 11 | -0.61 |
| MIA | avoid | -0.65 | MIN,CIN | +0.20 | NYJ,NE,DET | -0.86 | 17.2 | 6 | -0.73 |
| LAC | avoid | -0.77 | SEA,DEN,KC | -0.29 | LA,HOU | -0.48 | 21.1 | 7 | +0.16 |
| TEN | avoid | -0.89 | BAL,HOU,IND | -0.24 | CLE,CIN | -0.65 | 18.1 | 9 | -0.27 |
Defense vs TE
positive = soft matchup · these are position-specific, not overall defense quality
ARI11.0+1.86
WAS9.8+1.74
CIN12.4+1.74
MIA8.0+1.50
DET8.8+1.02
TB11.5+0.97
NYJ8.6+0.88
DAL8.8+0.59
IND9.8+0.53
NE7.3+0.50
JAX10.3+0.46
TEN10.9+0.43
LV8.4+0.22
NO6.5+0.05
PIT9.5+0.03
NYG7.6+0.01
DEN9.2-0.01
LAC8.6-0.08
CAR8.3-0.10
CHI8.5-0.12
HOU10.3-0.16
SF9.6-0.39
ATL7.0-0.43
BUF7.2-0.82
KC7.7-0.91
LA9.9-0.93
CLE5.6-0.94
GB7.7-0.98
MIN6.4-1.34
BAL5.7-1.47
SEA10.2-1.76
PHI5.6-2.13