Trade windows
Built for active trading: buy a soft upcoming stretch the market has not priced yet, then flip before the schedule turns. Matchup quality is defense-vs-position specific — a defense can be stout against running backs and porous against receivers, and these numbers keep those separate.
Buy targets
window wks 4-6 · vs recent form
- RBRhamondre StevensonNET6+1.42
- RBTreVeyon HendersonNET7+1.42
- RBJonathan TaylorINDT1+1.28
- RBJeremiyah LoveARIT4+1.26
- RBTyler AllgeierARIT9+1.26
- RBBam KnightARIT9+1.26
- RBJacory Croskey-MerrittWAST7+0.93
- RBRachaad WhiteWAST7+0.93
- RBD'Andre SwiftCHIT4+0.87
- RBKyle MonangaiCHIT8+0.87
- RBAaron JonesMINT5+0.82
- RBJerome FordMINT9+0.82
- RBChase BrownCINT3+0.76
- RBCam SkatteboNYGT4+0.68
Sell high / flip
soft now, hard after — sell into strength
- RBCam SkatteboNYGT4+1.34
- RBJames CookBUFT3+1.02
- RBChase BrownCINT3+0.92
- RBKenneth Walker IIIKCT3+0.87
- RBJahmyr GibbsDETT1+0.76
- RBD'Andre SwiftCHIT4+0.66
- RBKyle MonangaiCHIT8+0.66
- RBJeremiyah LoveARIT4+0.62
- RBTyler AllgeierARIT9+0.62
- RBBam KnightARIT9+0.62
- RBRhamondre StevensonNET6+0.55
- RBTreVeyon HendersonNET7+0.55
- RBTravis EtienneNOT7+0.51
- RBAudric EstiméNOT8+0.51
Avoid acquiring
hard upcoming stretch
- RBOmarion HamptonLACT3-1.17
- RBKeaton MitchellLACT9-1.17
- RBDe'Von AchaneMIAT2-1.10
- RBJaylen WrightMIAT7-1.10
- RBOllie Gordon IIMIAT7-1.10
- RBTony PollardTENT7-1.00
- RBTyjae SpearsTENT8-1.00
- RBMichael CarterTENT9-1.00
- RBQuinshon JudkinsCLET7-0.71
- RBRaheim SandersCLET9-0.71
RB team schedule windows
matchup score = 65% defense-vs-position + 35% implied game total
| Team | Action | Next 3 | Opponents | After 3 | Then | Edge | Implied | Bye | Playoff wks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | sell high | +0.96 | CAR,ARI | +0.19 | GB,MIN,MIA | +0.76 | 24.9 | 6 | -0.05 |
| NYG | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.73 | ARI,WAS,NO | -0.60 | HOU,PHI | +1.34 | 22.8 | 8 | +0.65 |
| KC | sell high | +0.58 | LV,LAC | -0.29 | SEA,DEN,NYJ | +0.87 | 25.1 | 5 | +0.23 |
| CHI | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.57 | NYJ,GB,ATL | -0.09 | NE,SEA,TB | +0.66 | 23.6 | 10 | +0.57 |
| MIN | buy low | +0.54 | MIA,NO | +0.33 | IND,DET,BUF | +0.21 | 23.3 | 6 | +0.87 |
| BUF | sell high | +0.49 | NE,LA,LV | -0.52 | BAL,MIN | +1.02 | 24.6 | 7 | +0.26 |
| LA | hold | +0.44 | PHI,BUF,ARI | +0.65 | LV,LAC,WAS | -0.22 | 24.2 | 11 | -0.05 |
| CIN | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.43 | JAX,MIA | -0.49 | BAL,TEN,ATL | +0.92 | 23.0 | 6 | -0.50 |
| NO | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.41 | ATL,MIN,NYG | -0.10 | PIT,CLE | +0.51 | 24.3 | 8 | +0.57 |
| NE | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.41 | BUF,LV,NYJ | -0.14 | CHI,MIA,GB | +0.55 | 21.7 | 11 | -0.41 |
| IND | buy low | +0.35 | WAS,PIT,TEN | +0.23 | MIN,JAX,DAL | +0.12 | 24.6 | 13 | +0.23 |
| BAL | hold | +0.28 | TEN,ATL,CLE | +0.11 | CIN,BUF,JAX | +0.17 | 23.3 | 13 | -0.28 |
| ARI | buy now, flip wk7 | +0.25 | NYG,DET,LA | -0.36 | DEN,DAL,SEA | +0.62 | 22.3 | 14 | +0.37 |
| WAS | buy low | +0.13 | IND,NYG,SF | -0.49 | PHI,LA | +0.62 | 21.4 | 7 | -0.42 |
| HOU | hold | +0.11 | DAL,TEN,JAX | +0.01 | NYG,LAC | +0.11 | 21.5 | 8 | -0.70 |
| GB | hold | +0.09 | TB,CHI,DAL | -0.05 | DET,CAR,NE | +0.14 | 21.6 | 11 | -0.21 |
| PHI | hold | +0.05 | LA,JAX,CAR | +1.42 | DAL,WAS,NYG | -1.36 | 23.2 | 10 | -0.29 |
| SEA | hold | +0.04 | LAC,SF,DEN | +0.08 | KC,CHI,ARI | -0.04 | 23.5 | 11 | -0.20 |
| TB | hold | -0.05 | GB,DAL,PIT | +0.32 | CAR,ATL,CHI | -0.37 | 21.9 | 10 | +0.37 |
| DAL | hold | -0.09 | HOU,TB,GB | +0.38 | PHI,ARI,IND | -0.47 | 23.8 | 14 | +0.44 |
| PIT | hold | -0.14 | CLE,IND,TB | -0.09 | NO,CLE | -0.05 | 21.5 | 9 | -0.21 |
| CAR | hold | -0.21 | DET,PHI | -0.26 | TB,GB,DEN | +0.05 | 22.3 | 5 | -0.77 |
| JAX | hold | -0.23 | CIN,PHI,HOU | -0.42 | IND,BAL | +0.19 | 23.1 | 7 | +0.42 |
| ATL | buy low | -0.24 | NO,BAL,CHI | +0.13 | SF,TB,CIN | -0.37 | 23.4 | 11 | +0.38 |
| NYJ | hold | -0.25 | CHI,CLE,NE | +0.10 | MIA,LV,KC | -0.35 | 21.0 | 13 | +0.06 |
| SF | hold | -0.31 | DEN,SEA,WAS | +0.27 | ATL,LV | -0.57 | 22.0 | 8 | -0.94 |
| LV | hold | -0.34 | KC,NE,BUF | -0.00 | LA,NYJ,SF | -0.34 | 21.3 | 13 | +0.00 |
| DEN | hold | -0.35 | SF,LAC,SEA | +0.38 | ARI,KC,CAR | -0.73 | 23.8 | 10 | +0.65 |
| CLE | avoid | -0.71 | PIT,NYJ,BAL | -0.92 | TEN,PIT,NO | +0.21 | 19.4 | 11 | -0.37 |
| TEN | avoid | -1.00 | BAL,HOU,IND | -0.36 | CLE,CIN | -0.64 | 18.1 | 9 | -0.55 |
| MIA | avoid | -1.10 | MIN,CIN | +0.14 | NYJ,NE,DET | -1.24 | 17.2 | 6 | -0.36 |
| LAC | avoid | -1.17 | SEA,DEN,KC | -0.28 | LA,HOU | -0.89 | 21.1 | 7 | +0.11 |
Defense vs RB
positive = soft matchup · these are position-specific, not overall defense quality
DAL15.3+1.86
WAS14.9+1.83
ARI15.9+1.43
MIA13.4+1.43
NYJ16.0+1.25
NYG15.3+1.00
ATL13.5+0.90
LV11.7+0.73
DET11.2+0.55
BUF13.8+0.41
CAR13.3+0.36
CIN13.0+0.36
NE11.5+0.33
IND11.7+0.19
SF13.9+0.10
CLE13.5+0.06
NO10.4-0.18
LAC10.0-0.23
LA14.1-0.29
TB13.1-0.29
TEN10.9-0.32
GB12.8-0.37
JAX11.3-0.41
DEN8.9-0.49
CHI12.9-0.60
HOU10.9-0.78
BAL11.2-1.00
PHI11.3-1.11
MIN9.3-1.33
PIT10.9-1.39
KC9.7-1.54
SEA8.8-2.48