Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Jerome Ford

WAS

RB66 · overall #268 · tier 9 · age 26

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Projected points

54

3.9/gm

Value over replacement

-40

repl 110

Range

0–108

sd 54

Week

3.2

@ PHI

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
2.3
Carries / game
3.0
Receptions / game
1.8
Rec yards / game
11
Rush yards / game
13
Rush TD / game
0.08
Rec TD / game
0.05
Total TD / game
0.12
Games projected
13.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.3
Games of history
57
Age multiplier
0.953
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.8
Projected plays / game
60.8
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
-0.49
OL pass protection
-0.83
OL continuity
84%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
67%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.20
Scheme creativity
-0.17
Play action / motion
20% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
49
Effective contributors
2.63
Top player's share
51%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
PHI,DAL,SEA
Window matchup
-0.22
Opponents after
IND,NYG,SF
After matchup
+0.39
Flip edge
-0.61
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.57

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

13

Points

30.6

Per game

2.35

17-gm pace

40

Best / worst

7.9 / -0.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
11.068011-30
27.9631065230
33.000044100
40.81-102140
54.8518022200
65.5217065130
72.010022100
80.400021-10
100.11101000
110.21200000
12-0.31-300000
133.200033170
142.000032100