Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Jahmyr Gibbs

DET

RB1 · overall #1 · tier 1 · age 24

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Projected points

278

18.6/gm

Value over replacement

176

repl 110

Range

219–336

sd 59

Week

19.0

vs NO

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.2
Carries / game
15.9
Receptions / game
4.1
Rec yards / game
32
Rush yards / game
78
Rush TD / game
0.66
Rec TD / game
0.17
Total TD / game
0.84
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
20.8
Games of history
49
Age multiplier
1.022
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.6
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.86
OL pass protection
+0.77
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.25
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
40
Effective contributors
1.97
Top player's share
60%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.44

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NO,BUF,NYJ
Window matchup
+1.05
Opponents after
CAR,ARI
After matchup
+0.78
Flip edge
+0.27
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.01

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

328.4

Per game

19.32

17-gm pace

328

Best / worst

49.9 / 4.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
110.091901010310
217.91294133100
324.42267265320
416.7159112260
515.71254022331
67.0176502100
735.317136233820
94.392503330
1036.715142243301
1117.112390851070
1249.91521921211451
1310.12068043180
1433.51243377770
157.81338074200
1617.87201310661
175.41741032230
1818.81980053331