Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Tyjae Spears

TEN

RB47 · overall #151 · tier 8 · age 25

← back to rankings

Projected points

87

6.5/gm

Value over replacement

-5

repl 110

Range

45–129

sd 42

Week

5.6

vs NYJ

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.5
Carries / game
5.4
Receptions / game
2.8
Rec yards / game
18
Rush yards / game
20
Rush TD / game
0.23
Rec TD / game
0.04
Total TD / game
0.27
Games projected
13.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.2
Games of history
42
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.4
Projected plays / game
59.3
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.43
OL pass protection
-1.39
OL continuity
46%
2TE rate
21%
3WR rate
77%
1st-down pass rate
39%
Run friendly
+0.19
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
20% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score
57
Effective contributors
1.68
Top player's share
74%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.70

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NYJ,PHI,NYG
Window matchup
+0.12
Opponents after
BAL,HOU,IND
After matchup
-0.68
Flip edge
+0.80
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.55

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

13

Points

89.2

Per game

6.86

17-gm pace

117

Best / worst

19.0 / 0.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
51.441400000
67.0531044190
75.5522043180
815.7959133230
97.7726033360
115.943055310
124.534054210
135.42-1066250
145.7819042280
154.633402220
1619.01352155530
170.662021-10
186.231807790