Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Tyler Allgeier

ARI

RB54 · overall #209 · tier 8 · age 26

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Projected points

77

5.1/gm

Value over replacement

-27

repl 110

Range

19–135

sd 58

Week

4.2

@ LAC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
1.1
Carries / game
6.7
Receptions / game
1.0
Rec yards / game
7
Rush yards / game
27
Rush TD / game
0.24
Rec TD / game
0.02
Total TD / game
0.26
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.3
Games of history
67
Age multiplier
0.953
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
61.8
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
-0.66
OL pass protection
-0.78
OL continuity
0%
2TE rate
48%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.40
Scheme creativity
+0.44
Play action / motion
25% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.46
Top player's share
32%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LAC,SEA,SF
Window matchup
-1.47
Opponents after
NYG,DET,LA
After matchup
-0.17
Flip edge
-1.29
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.16

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

116.0

Per game

6.82

17-gm pace

116

Best / worst

17.7 / 0.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
12.4102400000
214.5167611140
30.91402100
411.1165110000
610.3103211160
71.641600000
88.444122100
90.62600000
1017.7115720000
118.631012260
125.4124401150
1312.5820122350
147.71134022330
151.821800000
167.81679011-60
172.3102300000
182.471602130