Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Jeremiyah Love

ARIROOKIE R1

RB17 · overall #30 · tier 4 · age 21

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Projected points

162

13.5/gm

Value over replacement

75

repl 116

Range

106–218

sd 56

Week

12.2

@ NYG

The take

written by hand

I was out on Love before the injury; the ankle is icing. Allgeier took 10 goal-line carries last year to Bijan's 11 -- and that was Bijan's third year, not a rookie -- scoring on 5. Arizona throws a ton and McBride, Harrison and Wilson take 66% of the targets. Then a brutal open: Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, with only the Giants looking decent. Phenomenal prospect, wrong year.

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-03

Cut to 161.8 over 12.0 games (RB15 -> RB19), a fade of the OFFENCE and the GOAL LINE with the ankle as the tiebreak. Arizona projects 31st of 32 in rush plays (24.9/g) and 3rd in pass plays (36.8/g), threw on 62.7% of snaps last year, ran on 40.4% of early downs, and grades 25th in run blocking -- a bad room for a workhorse before you look at who else is in it. Tyler Allgeier took 10 carries inside the 5 in 2025 against Bijan Robinson's 11 on a 30.2% snap share, converting 5, and finished 8 rushing TDs on 143 carries; the beat had him on most of the first-team reps 29 Jul. Love projects 5.7 rush TDs and handing Allgeier two of them is RB25 on its own. Conner is still rostered (208 and 236 carries at 60%+ snaps, 2023-24). Allgeier has 51 straight games; Love is 21 and already hurt. BOTH FACTORS STATED so split_override cannot re-spend the claim -- 12.0 games at his own 13.48/g, the rate is not in dispute. Replaces the 17 Aug cut to 198.2/RB15, which was a points nudge that never touched the games. Re-read 3 Sep: the cited team numbers VERIFY. Arizona projects 25.1 rush plays a game, 31st of 32, and 37.1 pass plays, 3rd -- against the 24.9 and 36.8 the reason states. Premise intact.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.9
Carries / game
15.7
Receptions / game
3.1
Rec yards / game
21
Rush yards / game
68
Rush TD / game
0.48
Rec TD / game
0.10
Total TD / game
0.59
Games projected
12.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
–
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
62.2
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
-0.14
OL pass protection
-0.29
OL continuity
51%
2TE rate
48%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.40
Scheme creativity
+0.44
Play action / motion
25% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.46
Top player's share
32%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
NYG,DET,LA
Window matchup
+0.25
Opponents after
DEN,DAL,SEA
After matchup
-0.36
Flip edge
+0.62
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.37

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Jeremiyah Love — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.