Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Malik Washington

MIA

WR72 · overall #184 · tier 10 · age 25

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Projected points

88

6.0/gm

Value over replacement

-17

repl 115

Range

51–124

sd 36

Week

5.0

@ LV

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.4
Carries / game
0.7
Receptions / game
2.9
Rec yards / game
30
Rush yards / game
4
Rush TD / game
0.04
Rec TD / game
0.15
Total TD / game
0.19
Games projected
14.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.1
Games of history
31
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.6
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-1.25
OL pass protection
-0.63
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
46%
1st-down pass rate
42%
Run friendly
-0.07
Scheme creativity
+1.42
Play action / motion
26% / 73%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
3.82
Top player's share
41%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LV,SF,KC
Window matchup
-1.26
Opponents after
MIN,CIN
After matchup
-1.10
Flip edge
-0.16
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.84

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

93.7

Per game

5.51

17-gm pace

94

Best / worst

11.6 / 1.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
13.95220019
29.02120323
34.753120220
43.13213028
52.0540000
64.35422011
75.58530000
811.65436100
95.633480313
108.3329114
115.73342000
135.05430000
142.54310000
151.51110000
169.71123019
171.0314011
1810.34361222