Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Malik Washington

MIA

WR77 · overall #180 · tier 9 · age 25

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Projected points

100

6.9/gm

Value over replacement

-8

repl 119

Range

64–136

sd 36

Week

4.8

@ MIN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.1
Carries / game
0.7
Receptions / game
3.4
Rec yards / game
35
Rush yards / game
4
Rush TD / game
0.04
Rec TD / game
0.15
Total TD / game
0.19
Games projected
14.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.1
Games of history
31
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.6
Projected plays / game
60.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-1.09
OL pass protection
-0.47
OL continuity
69%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
46%
1st-down pass rate
42%
Run friendly
-0.06
Scheme creativity
+1.42
Play action / motion
26% / 73%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
3.82
Top player's share
41%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
MIN,CIN
Window matchup
-1.52
Opponents after
NYJ,NE,DET
After matchup
+0.40
Flip edge
-1.91
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.70

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

70.7

Per game

4.16

17-gm pace

71

Best / worst

9.6 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.9WR675220019
28.5WR352120323
33.2WR6153120220
42.1WR743213028
50.0WR100540000
62.3WR675422011
73.0WR618530000
89.6WR205436100
94.1WR5333480313
107.3WR32329114
114.2WR443342000
133.0WR555430000
141.0WR834310000
151.0WR901110000
169.2WR251123019
170.5WR107314011
188.8WR174361222