Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Samaje Perine

CIN

RB51 · overall #193 · tier 8 · age 30

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Projected points

81

5.5/gm

Value over replacement

-21

repl 110

Range

52–110

sd 29

Week

5.5

vs TB

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
1.8
Carries / game
5.9
Receptions / game
1.5
Rec yards / game
11
Rush yards / game
25
Rush TD / game
0.14
Rec TD / game
0.04
Total TD / game
0.17
Games projected
14.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.5
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
0.876
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
60.9
Projected pass rate
60%
OL run block
-0.72
OL pass protection
-1.37
OL continuity
99%
2TE rate
40%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.75
Scheme creativity
-0.69
Play action / motion
17% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
9
Effective contributors
1.82
Top player's share
69%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.28

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
TB,HOU,PIT
Window matchup
-0.09
Opponents after
JAX,MIA
After matchup
+0.25
Flip edge
-0.35
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.43

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

69.4

Per game

4.63

17-gm pace

79

Best / worst

16.5 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
11.60002260
20.00000000
30.142100000
40.41401000
53.942702220
64.2616032160
73.173100000
816.599411160
90.51500000
134.41439022150
144.363101170
154.8144201110
1611.1725132160
177.83511180
186.7842043100