Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Matthew Golden

GB

WR51 · overall #114 · tier 9 · age 23

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Projected points

115

8.2/gm

Value over replacement

11

repl 119

Range

87–144

sd 29

Week

9.9

@ TB

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-24

Re-priced 24 Aug to the CURRENT market, replacing the 6 Aug row lifted the same day. Same category as the Strange row written today: MARKET-MATCHING, no independent football argument, and it should not be read as the model having found something. 115.4 = 8.24/g x 14.0 games lands WR48, against ADP WR48, ECR WR49, Underdog WR47 and Yahoo WR55. THIS IS THE LARGEST OF THE THREE LIFTS AND THE REASON IT COULD NOT SIMPLY BE LEFT: native he is WR78 on 5.78/g, a THIRTY-RANK disagreement with all four markets that immediately tripped the audit's own review list. The old row said 'ADP 52' and ADP is now 48, so a row written to RAISE him toward the market had quietly become a ceiling holding him under it -- which is why it was lifted, not because the direction was wrong. WHAT WOULD SETTLE IT PROPERLY: a thirty-rank gap on a second-year receiver is either a real edge or a real miss, and nothing here distinguishes them. His own usage is the thing to look at, not his ADP.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.4
Carries / game
0.8
Receptions / game
4.0
Rec yards / game
50
Rush yards / game
4
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.14
Total TD / game
0.14
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.3
Games of history
14
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.5
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.62
OL pass protection
-0.44
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.91
Scheme creativity
+0.54
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
5.34
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TB,CHI,DAL
Window matchup
+0.25
Opponents after
DET,CAR,NE
After matchup
+0.05
Flip edge
+0.20
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.05

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

14

Points

41.0

Per game

2.93

17-gm pace

50

Best / worst

10.2 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
11.6WR822216000
21.5WR982000215
36.1WR384452039
46.3WR366558015
610.2WR1853860216
73.7WR524437000
80.4WR88334000
90.9WR82329000
112.4WR633124000
140.0WR101100000
155.5WR424355000
160.4WR112100024
171.2WR893112000
180.8WR89318000