Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Matthew Golden

GB

WR55 · overall #115 · tier 9 · age 23

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Projected points

113

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

12

repl 115

Range

81–144

sd 32

Week

6.4

@ MIN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.0
Carries / game
0.9
Receptions / game
3.8
Rec yards / game
47
Rush yards / game
5
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.16
Total TD / game
0.16
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.3
Games of history
14
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.4
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.65
OL pass protection
-0.47
OL continuity
64%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.90
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
5.34
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
MIN,NYJ,ATL
Window matchup
+0.38
Opponents after
TB,CHI,DAL
After matchup
+0.40
Flip edge
-0.02
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.10

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

14

Points

70.0

Per game

5.00

17-gm pace

85

Best / worst

13.2 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
13.62216000
21.52000215
310.14452039
411.36558015
613.253860216
77.74437000
83.4334000
92.9329000
113.43124000
140.0100000
158.54355000
160.4100024
172.23112000
181.8318000