Matthew Golden
GBWR51 · overall #114 · tier 9 · age 23
Projected points
115
8.2/gm
Value over replacement
11
repl 119
Range
87–144
sd 29
Week
9.9
@ TB
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-24
Re-priced 24 Aug to the CURRENT market, replacing the 6 Aug row lifted the same day. Same category as the Strange row written today: MARKET-MATCHING, no independent football argument, and it should not be read as the model having found something. 115.4 = 8.24/g x 14.0 games lands WR48, against ADP WR48, ECR WR49, Underdog WR47 and Yahoo WR55. THIS IS THE LARGEST OF THE THREE LIFTS AND THE REASON IT COULD NOT SIMPLY BE LEFT: native he is WR78 on 5.78/g, a THIRTY-RANK disagreement with all four markets that immediately tripped the audit's own review list. The old row said 'ADP 52' and ADP is now 48, so a row written to RAISE him toward the market had quietly become a ceiling holding him under it -- which is why it was lifted, not because the direction was wrong. WHAT WOULD SETTLE IT PROPERLY: a thirty-rank gap on a second-year receiver is either a real edge or a real miss, and nothing here distinguishes them. His own usage is the thing to look at, not his ADP.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 6.4
- Carries / game
- 0.8
- Receptions / game
- 4.0
- Rec yards / game
- 50
- Rush yards / game
- 4
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.14
- Total TD / game
- 0.14
- Games projected
- 14.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 5.3
- Games of history
- 14
- Age multiplier
- 1.052
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.1
- Projected plays / game
- 60.5
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- -0.62
- OL pass protection
- -0.44
- OL continuity
- 60%
- 2TE rate
- 32%
- 3WR rate
- 60%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 41%
- Run friendly
- +0.91
- Scheme creativity
- +0.54
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 59%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 5.34
- Top player's share
- 30%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- TB,CHI,DAL
- Window matchup
- +0.25
- Opponents after
- DET,CAR,NE
- After matchup
- +0.05
- Flip edge
- +0.20
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.05
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
14
Points
55.5
Per game
3.96
17-gm pace
67
Best / worst
11.7 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.6 | WR83 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1.5 | WR106 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | 8.1 | WR37 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | 8.8 | WR32 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | 11.7 | WR20 | 5 | 3 | 86 | 0 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | 5.7 | WR50 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 1.9 | WR75 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 1.9 | WR80 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 2.9 | WR67 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0.0 | WR102 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 7.0 | WR46 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 0.4 | WR116 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | 1.7 | WR93 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 1.3 | WR89 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |