Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Josh Jacobs

GB

RB43 · overall #137 · tier 8 · age 28

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Projected points

45

7.5/gm

Value over replacement

1

repl 116

Range

0–102

sd 57

Week

1.1

@ TB

The take

written by hand

I'm a long way ahead of consensus RB20 and I'll defend it. 16.5 carries a game is a bell-cow number, and even with the age curve at 0.92 and a questionable tag, that volume plays.

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-01

HE IS SUSPENDED, NOT HURT, and for an unknown length -- Matt, 1 Sep. Sleeper's injury_body_part says Groin and that is what the first version of this row argued from; it is stale and it was the wrong premise. The right one is that Green Bay has him DEPTH 4 behind Lloyd, Brooks and Johnson while he serves a ban nobody has put a number on. WRITTEN AS A GAMES CLAIM, because that is what a suspension is: 6.0 games, and 7.5/g when he plays, which is a committee back rather than the bell cow he was. The first version spent the whole cut on RATE -- 11.0 games at 6.36/g -- which claims he plays most of the season BELOW replacement, and that is not a suspension, it is a different and false story. Note RB43 is about the floor the board can give a suspended man who returns at all: VOR credits the games he does play and streams the rest, so pricing him lower would require claiming he never comes back.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
1.6
Carries / game
8.7
Receptions / game
1.3
Rec yards / game
10
Rush yards / game
35
Rush TD / game
0.29
Rec TD / game
0.02
Total TD / game
0.31
Games projected
6.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
16.4
Games of history
62
Age multiplier
0.915
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.5
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.62
OL pass protection
-0.44
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.91
Scheme creativity
+0.54
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
35
Effective contributors
2.10
Top player's share
61%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.37

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TB,CHI,DAL
Window matchup
+0.09
Opponents after
DET,CAR,NE
After matchup
-0.05
Flip edge
+0.14
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.21

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

15

Points

237.1

Per game

15.81

17-gm pace

269

Best / worst

32.0 / 1.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
114.0RB18196611140
214.4RB21238410000
312.4RB191630095440
431.7RB22286244710
632.0RB31893255570
718.8RB9135521130
813.5RB191333133120
920.0RB41787154130
1019.7RB62174165330
114.0RB4874001000
1310.1RB34178301180
1417.2RB10208612260
1523.2RB61273132191
164.8RB531236022120
171.3RB674301100