Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Jonathan Taylor

IND

RB6 · overall #9 · tier 2 · age 27

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Projected points

207

15.5/gm

Value over replacement

116

repl 110

Range

166–248

sd 41

Week

12.6

vs BAL

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
44
Carries
228
Receptions
34
Rec yards
257
Rush yards
1049
Rush TD
9.1
Rec TD
1.0
Total TD
10.1
Games projected
13.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
19.5
Games of history
52
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.78
OL pass protection
+0.85
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
1
Effective contributors
1.32
Top player's share
87%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.11

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BAL,KC,HOU
Window matchup
-0.81
Opponents after
WAS,PIT,TEN
After matchup
+0.36
Flip edge
-1.18
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.30

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

339.3

Per game

19.96

17-gm pace

339

Best / worst

48.1 / 4.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
111.31871033270
228.525165022501
331.317102343160
412.11776055200
530.11766343200
621.721123144140
732.71694333380
836.412153222211
96.71445022120
1048.132244333420
127.6165803280
1313.62185053360
1411.4217410000
1511.62587043140
1615.41646133330
1715.92170163140
184.91426022130