WR
Jalen Nailor
LVWR64 · overall #140 · tier 10 · age 27
Projected points
94
7.3/gm
Value over replacement
1
repl 115
Range
27–161
sd 67
Week
6.1
vs MIA
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 4.5
- Carries / game
- 0.2
- Receptions / game
- 2.7
- Rec yards / game
- 38
- Rush yards / game
- 1
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.35
- Total TD / game
- 0.35
- Games projected
- 12.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 6.0
- Games of history
- 43
- Age multiplier
- 0.939
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.0
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.09
- OL pass protection
- -0.23
- OL continuity
- 72%
- 2TE rate
- 42%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- +0.57
- Scheme creativity
- -0.06
- Play action / motion
- 22% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 98
- Effective contributors
- 4.24
- Top player's share
- 38%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.55
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- MIA,LAC,NO
- Window matchup
- -0.36
- Opponents after
- KC,NE,BUF
- After matchup
- -0.54
- Flip edge
- +0.18
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.20
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
17
Points
86.2
Per game
5.07
17-gm pace
86
Best / worst
20.9 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.3 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 8.7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5.7 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | 4.7 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 2.1 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 20.9 | 6 | 5 | 124 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 4.5 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 18.0 | 5 | 3 | 47 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| 16 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 6.4 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |