Jalen Nailor

RE-PRICED 27 Aug after an audit found the premise had moved. The row said 'Raised to WR65 (ADP 65, Sleeper 56) from WR75' and was written as a 10-rank nudge to the market. His NATIVE rank has since fallen to WR88 -- the model cut him from 4.49 targets a game to 3.15 -- so the same constant was performing a 25-RANK RAISE, two and a half times what was sanctioned. Checked before re-pricing: no other Las Vegas override caused it. Bowers, Tucker and Mayer are identical with and without the stale rows, so this is the model learning something about Nailor rather than an artifact of somebody else's number. So the drop gets partial respect instead of being overridden outright. 86.0 lands about WR72 -- still an 16-rank raise on native, still below ADP WR64 and well below ECR WR54, which is the honest place for a player two markets like more than we do and whose own projection is falling.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.