Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Jalen Nailor

LV

WR79 · overall #189 · tier 9 · age 27

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Projected points

86

6.7/gm

Value over replacement

-10

repl 119

Range

19–153

sd 67

Week

3.5

vs KC

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-27

RE-PRICED 27 Aug after an audit found the premise had moved. The row said 'Raised to WR65 (ADP 65, Sleeper 56) from WR75' and was written as a 10-rank nudge to the market. His NATIVE rank has since fallen to WR88 -- the model cut him from 4.49 targets a game to 3.15 -- so the same constant was performing a 25-RANK RAISE, two and a half times what was sanctioned. Checked before re-pricing: no other Las Vegas override caused it. Bowers, Tucker and Mayer are identical with and without the stale rows, so this is the model learning something about Nailor rather than an artifact of somebody else's number. So the drop gets partial respect instead of being overridden outright. 86.0 lands about WR72 -- still an 16-rank raise on native, still below ADP WR64 and well below ECR WR54, which is the honest place for a player two markets like more than we do and whose own projection is falling.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.1
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
2.5
Rec yards / game
34
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.28
Total TD / game
0.28
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.0
Games of history
43
Age multiplier
0.939
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
60.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.08
OL pass protection
-0.32
OL continuity
50%
2TE rate
42%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
+0.59
Scheme creativity
-0.05
Play action / motion
22% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
4.24
Top player's share
38%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
KC,NE,BUF
Window matchup
-0.36
Opponents after
LA,NYJ,SF
After matchup
+0.01
Flip edge
-0.38
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.07

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

100.7

Per game

5.92

17-gm pace

101

Best / worst

23.4 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
13.8WR813128000
26.1WR745331000
36.7WR565337000
49.2WR38412100
57.2WR5643270115
75.7WR624237000
80.0WR97100000
92.6WR784116000
1023.4WR465124100
112.6WR801116000
120.0WR98100000
130.0WR109100000
146.0WR523330000
1519.5WR10534721-2
160.0WR119200000
170.0WR120100000
187.9WR373349000