Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Jalen Nailor

LV

WR79 · overall #189 · tier 9 · age 27

← back to rankings

Projected points

86

6.7/gm

Value over replacement

-10

repl 119

Range

19–153

sd 67

Week

3.5

vs KC

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-27

RE-PRICED 27 Aug after an audit found the premise had moved. The row said 'Raised to WR65 (ADP 65, Sleeper 56) from WR75' and was written as a 10-rank nudge to the market. His NATIVE rank has since fallen to WR88 -- the model cut him from 4.49 targets a game to 3.15 -- so the same constant was performing a 25-RANK RAISE, two and a half times what was sanctioned. Checked before re-pricing: no other Las Vegas override caused it. Bowers, Tucker and Mayer are identical with and without the stale rows, so this is the model learning something about Nailor rather than an artifact of somebody else's number. So the drop gets partial respect instead of being overridden outright. 86.0 lands about WR72 -- still an 16-rank raise on native, still below ADP WR64 and well below ECR WR54, which is the honest place for a player two markets like more than we do and whose own projection is falling.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.1
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
2.5
Rec yards / game
34
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.28
Total TD / game
0.28
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.0
Games of history
43
Age multiplier
0.939
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
60.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.08
OL pass protection
-0.32
OL continuity
50%
2TE rate
42%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
+0.59
Scheme creativity
-0.05
Play action / motion
22% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
4.24
Top player's share
38%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
KC,NE,BUF
Window matchup
-0.36
Opponents after
LA,NYJ,SF
After matchup
+0.01
Flip edge
-0.38
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.07

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

71.7

Per game

4.22

17-gm pace

72

Best / worst

18.4 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.8WR683128000
23.1WR755331000
33.7WR555337000
48.2WR27412100
54.2WR5743270115
73.7WR524237000
80.0WR93100000
91.6WR734116000
1018.4WR165124100
111.6WR761116000
120.0WR97100000
130.0WR108100000
143.0WR533330000
1516.5WR7534721-2
160.0WR118200000
170.0WR120100000
184.9WR343349000