Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

DeMario Douglas

NE

WR77 · overall #201 · tier 10 · age 25

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Projected points

82

5.5/gm

Value over replacement

-25

repl 115

Range

44–120

sd 38

Week

4.6

@ SEA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.1
Carries / game
0.5
Receptions / game
2.6
Rec yards / game
31
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.16
Total TD / game
0.16
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.2
Games of history
46
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
59.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.47
OL pass protection
-0.48
OL continuity
73%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
57%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.10
Scheme creativity
-0.59
Play action / motion
21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
SEA,PIT,JAX
Window matchup
-0.34
Opponents after
BUF,LV,NYJ
After matchup
+0.22
Flip edge
-0.56
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.58

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

80.3

Per game

5.02

17-gm pace

85

Best / worst

18.0 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
17.272-2114
21.3118000
31.7527000
52.73217000
614.64371100
73.23317000
85.21144023
918.064100100
104.42234010
114.6333601-5
125.611370114
134.83333000
150.5000015
161.1216000
171.52110000
183.93229000