Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

DeMario Douglas

NE

WR89 · overall #212 · tier 9 · age 25

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Projected points

92

6.2/gm

Value over replacement

-19

repl 119

Range

58–127

sd 34

Week

4.1

@ BUF

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
69
Carries
5
Receptions
45
Rec yards
521
Rush yards
23
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
2.4
Total TD
2.4
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.2
Games of history
46
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
60.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.38
OL pass protection
-0.39
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
57%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.11
Scheme creativity
-0.58
Play action / motion
21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
BUF,LV,NYJ
Window matchup
+0.05
Opponents after
CHI,MIA,GB
After matchup
+0.06
Flip edge
-0.00
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.45

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

80.3

Per game

5.02

17-gm pace

85

Best / worst

18.0 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
17.2WR4572-2114
21.3WR108118000
31.7WR96527000
52.7WR733217000
614.6WR144371100
73.2WR673317000
85.2WR531144023
918.0WR864100100
104.4WR562234010
114.6WR55333601-5
125.6WR4211370114
134.8WR553333000
150.5WR103000015
161.1WR107216000
171.5WR962110000
183.9WR543229000