Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

DeMario Douglas

NE

WR89 · overall #212 · tier 9 · age 25

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Projected points

92

6.2/gm

Value over replacement

-19

repl 119

Range

58–127

sd 34

Week

4.1

@ BUF

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.6
Carries / game
0.4
Receptions / game
3.0
Rec yards / game
35
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.16
Total TD / game
0.16
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.2
Games of history
46
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
60.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.38
OL pass protection
-0.39
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
57%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.11
Scheme creativity
-0.58
Play action / motion
21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
BUF,LV,NYJ
Window matchup
+0.05
Opponents after
CHI,MIA,GB
After matchup
+0.06
Flip edge
-0.00
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.45

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

16

Points

64.8

Per game

4.05

17-gm pace

69

Best / worst

16.0 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
16.2WR3672-2114
20.8WR107118000
30.7WR105527000
51.7WR743217000
613.1WR134371100
71.7WR703317000
84.7WR471144023
916.0WR664100100
103.4WR532234010
113.1WR56333601-5
125.1WR4011370114
133.3WR533333000
150.5WR100000015
160.6WR108216000
171.0WR932110000
182.9WR533229000