Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Cole Kmet

CHI

TE27 · overall #197 · tier 7 · age 27

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Projected points

83

5.5/gm

Value over replacement

-22

repl 111

Range

44–122

sd 39

Week

5.2

@ CAR

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.5
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
2.6
Rec yards / game
28
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.22
Total TD / game
0.22
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.3
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
1.010
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
62.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+1.37
OL pass protection
+1.06
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
+0.60
Scheme creativity
+0.58
Play action / motion
26% / 54%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
33
Effective contributors
2.04
Top player's share
60%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.35

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CAR,MIN,PHI
Window matchup
-0.34
Opponents after
NYJ,GB,ATL
After matchup
+0.27
Flip edge
-0.60
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.16

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

63.7

Per game

3.98

17-gm pace

68

Best / worst

11.1 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.641310
23.922290
37.511101
46.193460
60.52100
72.111160
91.521100
101.02150
117.055450
120.81130
1311.133361
145.232420
153.842280
162.432140
172.632160
184.632160