Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

TE

Cole Kmet

CHI

TE35 · overall #224 · tier – · age 27

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Projected points

83

5.5/gm

Value over replacement

-23

repl 112

Range

44–122

sd 39

Week

4.4

vs NYJ

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.5
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
2.6
Rec yards / game
28
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.22
Total TD / game
0.22
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.3
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
1.010
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
62.5
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+1.36
OL pass protection
+1.05
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
+0.61
Scheme creativity
+0.58
Play action / motion
26% / 54%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
33
Effective contributors
2.04
Top player's share
60%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.35

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
NYJ,GB,ATL
Window matchup
+0.07
Opponents after
NE,SEA,TB
After matchup
+0.37
Flip edge
-0.30
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.27

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

63.7

Per game

3.98

17-gm pace

68

Best / worst

11.1 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.6TE2941310
23.9TE3422290
37.5TE1611101
46.1TE2193460
60.5TE552100
72.1TE3811160
91.5TE4821100
101.0TE482150
117.0TE1255450
120.8TE541130
1311.1TE733361
145.2TE2032420
153.8TE2942280
162.4TE4232140
172.6TE3632160
184.6TE2632160