Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Ashton Jeanty

LV

RB4 · overall #8 · tier 2 · age 22

← back to rankings

Projected points

218

14.7/gm

Value over replacement

116

repl 110

Range

168–267

sd 50

Week

14.2

vs MIA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.1
Carries / game
20.2
Receptions / game
3.1
Rec yards / game
21
Rush yards / game
76
Rush TD / game
0.40
Rec TD / game
0.13
Total TD / game
0.53
Games projected
14.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.4
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.067
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
61.0
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.09
OL pass protection
-0.23
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
42%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
+0.57
Scheme creativity
-0.06
Play action / motion
22% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score
47
Effective contributors
1.32
Top player's share
87%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.53

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
MIA,LAC,NO
Window matchup
-0.43
Opponents after
KC,NE,BUF
After matchup
-0.51
Flip edge
+0.09
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.28

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

217.6

Per game

12.80

17-gm pace

218

Best / worst

32.5 / 3.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
111.0193812220
25.9114304310
36.3176300000
432.521138122172
513.41467075420
615.62375142110
73.9621011130
917.41342055471
1013.8196015330
116.467086270
1220.81750088581
139.11531086300
144.8103004280
156.293506470
1631.324128121601
178.31660022130
1810.9268705370