Ashton Jeanty

This is a play on the receiving work. The model wanted to regress him to 3.4 targets a game and I held him at the 4.3 he actually ran. That, on top of 20.5 carries, is why he's my RB4 against ADP RB8.

GAMES RE-PRICED 16 Sep: he is healthy and the old claim is falsified by his own week 1. The row was written 24 Aug, the night he sprained his ankle, and said so in its own words -- 'THE CLAIM IS ABOUT FOUR AND A HALF GAMES' -- pinning him to 12.4 games. He then opened the season with 50 snaps, 23 carries, 102 yards and 6 targets for 29.7 points, and Sleeper lists him Active, depth 1, no designation. That is a bell-cow workload, not a man playing through an ankle. Healthy backs of his profile project 14.9-15.2 games (Gibbs 14.9, Cook 15.0, Bijan 15.2), so 15.0 games. THE RATE IS UNCHANGED at 14.93/g -- it is the CARRY_RATE_MAX-capped line (21.05 car/g against a 22.0 ceiling), a model output rather than a hand figure, so it is re-asserted rather than re-argued: 223.9 = 14.93 x 15.0. Target blanked because this states both factors and promises no rank. Found while pricing a Cook-for-Jeanty trade: the stale games claim was UNDERSTATING a player we were considering buying, which is the opposite of the usual failure and easier to miss for it.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.