RB
Ashton Jeanty
LVRB4 · overall #8 · tier 2 · age 22
Projected points
218
14.7/gm
Value over replacement
116
repl 110
Range
168–267
sd 50
Week
14.2
vs MIA
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 4.1
- Carries / game
- 20.2
- Receptions / game
- 3.1
- Rec yards / game
- 21
- Rush yards / game
- 76
- Rush TD / game
- 0.40
- Rec TD / game
- 0.13
- Total TD / game
- 0.53
- Games projected
- 14.8
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 14.4
- Games of history
- 17
- Age multiplier
- 1.067
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.0
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.09
- OL pass protection
- -0.23
- OL continuity
- 72%
- 2TE rate
- 42%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- +0.57
- Scheme creativity
- -0.06
- Play action / motion
- 22% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 47
- Effective contributors
- 1.32
- Top player's share
- 87%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.53
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- MIA,LAC,NO
- Window matchup
- -0.43
- Opponents after
- KC,NE,BUF
- After matchup
- -0.51
- Flip edge
- +0.09
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.28
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
190.1
Per game
11.18
17-gm pace
190
Best / worst
31.5 / 3.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.0 | 19 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 17 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 31.5 | 21 | 138 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 2 |
| 5 | 10.9 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| 6 | 14.6 | 23 | 75 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 7 | 3.4 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 9 | 14.9 | 13 | 42 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| 10 | 12.3 | 19 | 60 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | 3.4 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| 12 | 16.8 | 17 | 50 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| 13 | 6.1 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| 14 | 3.8 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 | 4.2 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 | 30.8 | 24 | 128 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 60 | 1 |
| 17 | 7.3 | 16 | 60 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 | 9.4 | 26 | 87 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 |