A.J. Brown
NEWR22 · overall #56 · tier 5 · age 29
Projected points
125
12.5/gm
Value over replacement
51
repl 119
Range
73–177
sd 52
Week
0.0
@ BUF
The take
written by hand
New team at 29 with the age curve down at 0.88, and I still raised him to WR11. 8.3 targets across 15.5 games is the most dependable volume in this range.
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-16
GAMES CLAIM, 16 Sep: he is on IR. The row above was a market-matching call from 6 Aug (raised WR17 -> WR9, level with ADP 9 and Sleeper 7), re-priced 3 Sep, and its own text said 'unchanged in substance since it was written' -- which by 16 Sep was false. It stated a season total with NO games value, so split_override gave games first claim and restored them from the 0.15 injury multiplier's ~2.4 all the way to 12.6, then put the remainder into the rate. That produced WR5 at 15.68/g and the 5th-highest VOR of any receiver in the league FOR A PLAYER ON INJURED RESERVE. Now written as both factors: 10.0 games (missing about six, Matt's read) at 12.50/g, which is the rate the previous version argued for (12.28) and below his own 13.47 career half-PPR rate. Writing the games directly also clears injury_games_mult, so the total can no longer be spent on undoing his injury. The WEEKLY board was always right about him -- play_prob 0.00, WR239 -- this only ever affected the season, dynasty and ROS views.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 84
- Carries
- 1
- Receptions
- 53
- Rec yards
- 715
- Rush yards
- 6
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 5.0
- Total TD
- 5.0
- Games projected
- 10.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.7
- Games of history
- 62
- Age multiplier
- 0.876
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 60.1
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.38
- OL pass protection
- -0.39
- OL continuity
- 72%
- 2TE rate
- 31%
- 3WR rate
- 57%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 43%
- Run friendly
- +0.11
- Scheme creativity
- -0.58
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 48%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 4.15
- Top player's share
- 36%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- BUF,LV,NYJ
- Window matchup
- +0.05
- Opponents after
- CHI,MIA,GB
- After matchup
- +0.06
- Flip edge
- -0.00
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.45
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
15
Points
181.3
Per game
12.09
17-gm pace
205
Best / worst
30.2 / 1.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.3 | WR100 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5.2 | WR70 | 8 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 19.9 | WR3 | 10 | 6 | 109 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | WR97 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 6.8 | WR50 | 8 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 11.0 | WR21 | 9 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 26.1 | WR3 | 6 | 4 | 121 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 2.3 | WR72 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 8.4 | WR28 | 11 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 21.0 | WR5 | 10 | 8 | 110 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 30.2 | WR1 | 12 | 10 | 132 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 13.0 | WR16 | 13 | 6 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 11.1 | WR27 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 14.0 | WR17 | 12 | 9 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 9.3 | WR31 | 7 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 |