Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Zay Flowers

BAL

WR15 · overall #44 · tier 4 · age 26

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Projected points

172

11.3/gm

Value over replacement

59

repl 119

Range

112–232

sd 60

Week

13.5

vs TEN

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

RAISED 22 Aug, reversing a cut this row's OWN REASON predicted would go stale. The 17 Aug text already said it: 'an override written to align him TO the market now sits BELOW both' -- ADP WR13, ECR WR15, and the override landing WR17. It has since drifted further, to WR22. It called itself a HISTORY anchor at 6.86 targets a game, and that argument has flipped with the history. His three seasons run 10.37, 10.15, 12.14 points a game on 53.6, 62.3, 71.2 receiving yards -- rising on both, and at the model's WR decay of 0.50 his own weighted rate is 11.32/g against a projected 10.30. The anchor now argues UP. 172.1 = 11.32 x 15.2 games, his own record rather than a market target, which lands around WR15 and between ADP WR13 and ECR WR15 without conceding to either. Deliberately below the 187.2 native the 17 Aug note recorded, because WR7 was the level this row existed to dispute and that part still holds.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
7.5
Carries / game
0.5
Receptions / game
5.0
Rec yards / game
66
Rush yards / game
3
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.31
Total TD / game
0.33
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
13.5
Games of history
50
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.9
Projected plays / game
60.2
Projected pass rate
53%
OL run block
+0.50
OL pass protection
-0.17
OL continuity
57%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
34%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.69
Scheme creativity
+0.62
Play action / motion
23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
93
Effective contributors
2.62
Top player's share
56%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.14

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
sell high
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TEN,ATL,CLE
Window matchup
+0.60
Opponents after
CIN,BUF,JAX
After matchup
-0.23
Flip edge
+0.84
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.08

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

200.3

Per game

11.78

17-gm pace

200

Best / worst

27.8 / -0.4

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
124.6WR197143128
211.4WR3111775014
32.3WR873213000
410.9WR268774000
59.7WR325572000
65.6WR4710646000
810.6WR289763018
98.9WR335564000
1010.1WR306475016
119.8WR215378015
129.4WR3065580211
13-0.4WR150726000
1416.6WR8118124012
1514.3WR175368100
1617.7WR1077840118
1711.0WR245430100
1827.8WR164138200