WR
Zay Flowers
BALWR17 · overall #61 · tier 5 · age 25
Projected points
157
10.3/gm
Value over replacement
47
repl 115
Range
97–216
sd 60
Week
11.2
@ IND
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 6.9
- Carries / game
- 0.4
- Receptions / game
- 4.5
- Rec yards / game
- 60
- Rush yards / game
- 2
- Rush TD / game
- 0.02
- Rec TD / game
- 0.28
- Total TD / game
- 0.30
- Games projected
- 15.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 13.5
- Games of history
- 50
- Age multiplier
- 1.026
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.9
- Projected plays / game
- 60.0
- Projected pass rate
- 53%
- OL run block
- +0.40
- OL pass protection
- -0.27
- OL continuity
- 58%
- 2TE rate
- 45%
- 3WR rate
- 34%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- +0.68
- Scheme creativity
- +0.62
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 93
- Effective contributors
- 2.62
- Top player's share
- 56%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.14
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk4
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- IND,NO,DAL
- Window matchup
- +1.51
- Opponents after
- TEN,ATL,CLE
- After matchup
- +0.47
- Flip edge
- +1.04
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.16
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
157.3
Per game
9.25
17-gm pace
157
Best / worst
25.8 / -1.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21.1 | 9 | 7 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 8 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 7.2 | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 2.6 | 10 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | 6.4 | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 8.1 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | 8.3 | 5 | 3 | 78 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | 6.9 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | -1.4 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 12.6 | 11 | 8 | 124 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | 12.8 | 5 | 3 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 14.2 | 7 | 7 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 17 | 9.0 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 25.8 | 6 | 4 | 138 | 2 | 0 | 0 |