Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Xavier Worthy

KC

WR48 · overall #109 · tier 8 · age 23

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Projected points

118

8.3/gm

Value over replacement

16

repl 115

Range

73–163

sd 45

Week

7.1

vs DEN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.9
Carries / game
0.8
Receptions / game
3.5
Rec yards / game
43
Rush yards / game
4
Rush TD / game
0.05
Rec TD / game
0.25
Total TD / game
0.30
Games projected
14.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.1
Games of history
30
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.3
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.25
OL pass protection
+0.05
OL continuity
87%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.01
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.80
Top player's share
25%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DEN,IND,MIA
Window matchup
+0.85
Opponents after
LV,LAC
After matchup
-0.08
Flip edge
+0.93
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.02

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

14

Points

88.9

Per game

6.35

17-gm pace

108

Best / worst

14.6 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
10.0100010
414.685830238
58.19642019
69.64220116
76.343350113
87.87553000
94.57323017
114.05325000
127.98459000
139.464610213
147.04355000
154.54235000
165.13241010
170.1300011