Xavier Worthy

Market-matching call, 6 Aug: cut from WR38 to WR46, level with ADP 46 and Sleeper 49. Expanded 3 Sep. 117.7 over 14.4 games is 8.18/g against his own 8.22 half-PPR/g -- level with it -- a modest cut, which is what a market-matching call on a player the model already liked looks like. Markets now ADP 47, ECR 49, consensus 50, Underdog 50. Lands WR53 against the stated WR46. Measured, that drift is 3.2 POINTS of projection: the WR44-56 band spans 3.5 VOR across thirteen near-identical receivers, so eight ranks there is noise and re-pricing to chase it would be the false precision this file forbids. Left at its number deliberately. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers. AND IT REVERSED THIS ROW'S CLAIM: on the correct basis the projection is at or ABOVE his own rate, not below it. The row's argument is unaffected -- it rested on the market anchors and the stated rank -- but the supporting sentence said the opposite of the truth.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.