Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Tyler Warren

IND

TE3 · overall #49 · tier 1 · age 24

← back to rankings

Projected points

162

10.8/gm

Value over replacement

58

repl 111

Range

141–183

sd 21

Week

9.6

vs BAL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
8.2
Carries / game
0.3
Receptions / game
5.8
Rec yards / game
60
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.30
Total TD / game
0.32
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.2
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.060
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.78
OL pass protection
+0.85
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
4
Effective contributors
1.49
Top player's share
81%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.17

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BAL,KC,HOU
Window matchup
-0.67
Opponents after
WAS,PIT,TEN
After matchup
+0.88
Flip edge
-1.55
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.47

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

188.5

Per game

11.09

17-gm pace

188

Best / worst

18.3 / 3.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
114.997760
211.974790
36.853380
418.365700
514.444441
618.396631
716.954691
89.354530
97.675260
1017.9108990
129.575450
1311.243221
143.762150
154.963190
166.093300
179.355430
187.685260