Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

TE

Tyler Warren

IND

TE5 · overall #63 · tier 1 · age 24

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Projected points

150

10.0/gm

Value over replacement

45

repl 112

Range

129–171

sd 21

Week

11.2

@ WAS

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
7.5
Carries / game
0.3
Receptions / game
5.3
Rec yards / game
54
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.30
Total TD / game
0.32
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.2
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.060
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.8
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.69
OL pass protection
+0.76
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
4
Effective contributors
1.49
Top player's share
81%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.17

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
WAS,PIT,TEN
Window matchup
+0.80
Opponents after
MIN,JAX,DAL
After matchup
+0.14
Flip edge
+0.66
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.47

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

188.5

Per game

11.09

17-gm pace

188

Best / worst

18.3 / 3.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
114.9TE397760
211.9TE774790
36.8TE2353380
418.3TE265700
514.4TE1144441
618.3TE396631
716.9TE754691
89.3TE1254530
97.6TE2675260
1017.9TE5108990
129.5TE1375450
1311.2TE1443221
143.7TE2962150
154.9TE2963190
166.0TE2293300
179.3TE1655430
187.6TE2085260