Tyler Allgeier
ARIRB64 · overall #210 · tier 9 · age 26
Projected points
93
6.1/gm
Value over replacement
-18
repl 116
Range
35–151
sd 58
Week
5.4
@ NYG
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
RAISED 22 Aug -- RB63 against ADP RB49, and the only one in this batch where the model sits BELOW the player's own record: 5.14/g against a decay-weighted 6.61, -1.47. He is depth 2 in Arizona behind Jeremiyah Love, but he has been a productive committee back for three seasons and the board has him behind men with a fraction of his history. RB55, short of ADP RB49 because Love genuinely is ahead of him.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 0.9
- Carries / game
- 8.6
- Receptions / game
- 0.8
- Rec yards / game
- 6
- Rush yards / game
- 35
- Rush TD / game
- 0.20
- Rec TD / game
- 0.02
- Total TD / game
- 0.21
- Games projected
- 15.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 7.3
- Games of history
- 67
- Age multiplier
- 0.953
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- -0.14
- OL pass protection
- -0.29
- OL continuity
- 51%
- 2TE rate
- 48%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.40
- Scheme creativity
- +0.44
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 90
- Effective contributors
- 4.46
- Top player's share
- 32%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 2.00
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NYG,DET,LA
- Window matchup
- +0.25
- Opponents after
- DEN,DAL,SEA
- After matchup
- -0.36
- Flip edge
- +0.62
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.37
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
109.0
Per game
6.41
17-gm pace
109
Best / worst
17.7 / 0.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.4 | RB47 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | RB14 | 16 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | RB71 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 11.1 | RB20 | 16 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 9.8 | RB15 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 7 | 1.6 | RB53 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 7.4 | RB25 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 9 | 0.6 | RB58 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 17.7 | RB7 | 11 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 7.6 | RB30 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 | 4.9 | RB32 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 | 11.5 | RB20 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| 14 | 6.7 | RB34 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| 15 | 1.8 | RB59 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 7.3 | RB34 | 16 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 17 | 2.3 | RB53 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 1.9 | RB59 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |