QB
Trevor Lawrence
JAXQB9 · overall #77 · tier 3 · age 26
Projected points
251
17.7/gm
Value over replacement
30
repl 250
Range
212–291
sd 39
Week
18.3
@ CIN
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 33.6
- Pass yards / game
- 237
- Pass TD / game
- 1.48
- Carries / game
- 4.2
- Rush yards / game
- 18
- Rush TD / game
- 0.32
- Games projected
- 14.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.7
- Games of history
- 60
- Age multiplier
- 1.038
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.2
- Projected plays / game
- 61.3
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.72
- OL pass protection
- -0.20
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 73%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.06
- Scheme creativity
- -0.03
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 51%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CIN,PHI,HOU
- Window matchup
- -0.27
- Opponents after
- IND,BAL
- After matchup
- -0.20
- Flip edge
- -0.07
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.35
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
338.2
Per game
19.89
17-gm pace
338
Best / worst
44.3 / 7.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.3 | QB24 | 19 | 31 | 178 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | 19.2 | QB15 | 24 | 42 | 271 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | QB28 | 20 | 40 | 222 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 4 | 11.7 | QB25 | 21 | 31 | 174 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 5 | 26.2 | QB6 | 18 | 25 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 2 |
| 6 | 19.2 | QB12 | 27 | 42 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 7 | 17.6 | QB14 | 23 | 48 | 296 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 9 | 21.2 | QB12 | 23 | 34 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 2 |
| 10 | 9.8 | QB21 | 13 | 23 | 158 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| 11 | 15.0 | QB12 | 14 | 22 | 153 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 12 | 17.1 | QB10 | 18 | 30 | 256 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| 13 | 21.7 | QB5 | 16 | 27 | 229 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| 14 | 19.4 | QB10 | 17 | 30 | 244 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| 15 | 44.3 | QB1 | 20 | 32 | 330 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| 16 | 31.2 | QB1 | 23 | 36 | 279 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| 17 | 23.1 | QB6 | 23 | 37 | 263 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 2 |
| 18 | 23.3 | QB3 | 22 | 30 | 255 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 |