Tee Higgins

Market-matching call, 6 Aug: raised from WR32 to WR18, level with ADP 18 and Sleeper 19. Expanded 3 Sep. 154.6 over 13.7 games is 11.28/g against his own 12.33 half-PPR/g. Sleeper projects 186.9. Markets now ADP 18, ECR 15, consensus 17, Underdog 17 -- all four still at or above the target, so the premise holds unchanged. Note the 13.7 games rather than the rate is what separates him from the receivers around him; he carries a Questionable designation at injury_games_mult 0.94. Lands WR19. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.