T.J. Hockenson

MIN

TE21 · overall #144 · tier 5 · age 29

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Projected points

6.9/gm

Value over replacement

-1

repl 112

Range

58–131

sd 36

Week

6.7

vs MIA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 5.5
Carries / game: 0.0
Receptions / game: 3.9
Rec yards / game: 39
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.21
Total TD / game: 0.21
Games projected: 13.6
Observed pts/gm (history): 9.7
Games of history: 57
Age multiplier: 0.933
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.1
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: -0.05
OL pass protection: +0.10
OL continuity: 76%
2TE rate: 27%
3WR rate: 63%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: -0.76
Scheme creativity: +0.22
Play action / motion: 26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: clear lead
Ambiguity score: 13
Effective contributors: 1.86
Top player's share: 70%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.29

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: MIA,NO
Window matchup: +0.64
Opponents after: IND,DET,BUF
After matchup: +0.24
Flip edge: +0.40
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 6
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.87

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

112.8

Per game

7.52

17-gm pace

128

Best / worst

15.9 / 1.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	4.5	TE31	4	3	15	0
2	2.2	TE41	3	1	12	0
3	15.9	TE5	6	5	49	1
4	7.9	TE22	5	4	39	0
5	9.8	TE18	6	6	38	0
7	10.3	TE16	9	6	43	0
8	4.6	TE26	3	2	26	0
9	9.1	TE19	3	2	11	1
10	2.8	TE38	2	2	8	0
11	6.9	TE19	6	3	39	0
12	5.9	TE23	4	4	19	0
13	11.9	TE11	6	6	59	0
14	9.2	TE15	3	2	12	1
15	10.6	TE12	5	4	66	0
16	1.2	TE62	1	1	2	0