Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Rashod Bateman

BAL

WR73 · overall #175 · tier 10 · age 26

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Projected points

84

6.2/gm

Value over replacement

-13

repl 115

Range

38–129

sd 46

Week

6.0

@ IND

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.1
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
2.4
Rec yards / game
34
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.27
Total TD / game
0.27
Games projected
13.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.7
Games of history
50
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.9
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
53%
OL run block
+0.40
OL pass protection
-0.27
OL continuity
58%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
34%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.68
Scheme creativity
+0.62
Play action / motion
23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
93
Effective contributors
2.62
Top player's share
56%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.14

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
IND,NO,DAL
Window matchup
+1.51
Opponents after
TEN,ATL,CLE
After matchup
+0.47
Flip edge
+1.04
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.16

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

13

Points

45.9

Per game

3.53

17-gm pace

60

Best / worst

14.8 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.04210000
22.54215000
314.87563100
42.92124000
50.0300000
61.3118000
86.14251000
98.34213100
103.52110000
130.0100000
143.33223000
160.0200000
171.2117000