Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Rashee Rice

KC

WR5 · overall #12 · tier 2 · age 26

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Projected points

191

17.7/gm

Value over replacement

113

repl 115

Range

145–237

sd 46

Week

11.5

vs DEN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
11.6
Carries / game
0.5
Receptions / game
7.7
Rec yards / game
94
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.04
Rec TD / game
0.67
Total TD / game
0.71
Games projected
10.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
16.9
Games of history
28
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.3
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.25
OL pass protection
+0.05
OL continuity
87%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.01
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.80
Top player's share
25%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DEN,IND,MIA
Window matchup
+0.85
Opponents after
LV,LAC
After matchup
-0.08
Flip edge
+0.93
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.02

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

8

Points

123.6

Per game

15.45

17-gm pace

263

Best / worst

25.4 / 5.4

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
719.710742200
821.099931212
916.67480026
116.89638000
1220.1128141000
1325.412892212
145.48434000
158.611751000