Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Puka Nacua

LA

WR2 · overall #4 · tier 1 · age 25

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Projected points

237

17.2/gm

Value over replacement

138

repl 115

Range

173–301

sd 64

Week

15.2

vs SF

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
10.7
Carries / game
0.7
Receptions / game
7.2
Rec yards / game
99
Rush yards / game
5
Rush TD / game
0.03
Rec TD / game
0.52
Total TD / game
0.55
Games projected
13.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
22.0
Games of history
44
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
62.0
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.83
OL pass protection
+0.80
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.62
Scheme creativity
+1.30
Play action / motion
32% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
61
Effective contributors
3.17
Top player's share
45%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.74

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
SF,NYG,DEN
Window matchup
+0.12
Opponents after
PHI,BUF,ARI
After matchup
+0.33
Flip edge
-0.20
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.19

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

310.5

Per game

19.41

17-gm pace

330

Best / worst

40.5 / 3.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
118.11110130011
223.698910145
317.31511112016
429.51513170100
519.5121085100
63.83228000
919.38795113
1014.96564100
1110.887750218
1213.211797000
1310.29672000
1432.2117167200
1523.4119181028
1640.51612225200
1713.210547100
1821.01110761224