WR
Puka Nacua
LAWR5 · overall #17 · tier 2 · age 25
Projected points
168
16.6/gm
Value over replacement
93
repl 119
Range
98–238
sd 70
Week
8.4
@ PHI
The take
written by hand
10.7 targets a game, the highest on my board. The only reason he isn't further clear of the field is 13.8 games.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 10.3
- Carries / game
- 0.7
- Receptions / game
- 7.0
- Rec yards / game
- 96
- Rush yards / game
- 4
- Rush TD / game
- 0.03
- Rec TD / game
- 0.52
- Total TD / game
- 0.55
- Games projected
- 10.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 22.0
- Games of history
- 44
- Age multiplier
- 1.026
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.74
- OL pass protection
- +0.72
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 31%
- 3WR rate
- 69%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.61
- Scheme creativity
- +1.28
- Play action / motion
- 32% / 70%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 61
- Effective contributors
- 3.17
- Top player's share
- 45%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.74
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- PHI,BUF,ARI
- Window matchup
- -0.23
- Opponents after
- LV,LAC,WAS
- After matchup
- +0.35
- Flip edge
- -0.59
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.01
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
246.0
Per game
15.37
17-gm pace
261
Best / worst
34.5 / 2.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13.1 | WR8 | 11 | 10 | 130 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 19.6 | WR6 | 9 | 8 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 45 |
| 3 | 11.8 | WR17 | 15 | 11 | 112 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | 23.0 | WR3 | 15 | 13 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 14.5 | WR8 | 12 | 10 | 85 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 2.8 | WR54 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 15.8 | WR7 | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | 12.4 | WR18 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 7.3 | WR24 | 8 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | 9.7 | WR20 | 11 | 7 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 7.2 | WR34 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 28.7 | WR1 | 11 | 7 | 167 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 18.9 | WR4 | 11 | 9 | 181 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | 34.5 | WR1 | 16 | 12 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 10.7 | WR18 | 10 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 16.0 | WR3 | 11 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 2 | 24 |