WR
Nico Collins
HOUWR11 · overall #25 · tier 3 · age 27
Projected points
182
13.8/gm
Value over replacement
87
repl 115
Range
128–236
sd 54
Week
11.0
vs BUF
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 9.1
- Carries / game
- 0.1
- Receptions / game
- 5.7
- Rec yards / game
- 78
- Rush yards / game
- 1
- Rush TD / game
- 0.02
- Rec TD / game
- 0.51
- Total TD / game
- 0.53
- Games projected
- 13.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.7
- Games of history
- 52
- Age multiplier
- 0.939
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.37
- OL pass protection
- -1.17
- OL continuity
- 70%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 76%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.37
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 4.55
- Top player's share
- 35%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- BUF,CIN,IND
- Window matchup
- +0.36
- Opponents after
- DAL,TEN,JAX
- After matchup
- +0.44
- Flip edge
- -0.08
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.75
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
15
Points
155.2
Per game
10.35
17-gm pace
176
Best / worst
20.5 / 2.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.5 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9 | 3 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 14.4 | 11 | 8 | 104 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 7.9 | 6 | 4 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 12.0 | 5 | 4 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | 2.7 | 10 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 7.5 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 15.6 | 15 | 7 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 15.2 | 10 | 9 | 92 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 5.5 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 16.5 | 10 | 5 | 98 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 14 | 12.1 | 8 | 4 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 20.5 | 4 | 3 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 5.9 | 9 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 5.7 | 4 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 |